The hottest EU double anti-dumping is difficult to

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The EU "double anti" cannot prevent China's photovoltaic inflection point

the photovoltaic sector, which has been silent for three years, has attracted market attention again recently. It is not only because of the vote of EU Member States on China photovoltaic tax on May 24, but more importantly, after the long-term sharp decline in performance of the photovoltaic industry, an important part of new energy, the gross profit margin of its battery module products has rebounded, some photovoltaic enterprises have turned losses into profits in the first quarter, the overall fundamentals of the industry have improved slightly month on month, and it is even expected to improve year-on-year in the first half of the year

According to media reports, the EU imposed anti-dumping duties on China's photovoltaic module products as high as 47%, which means that the meager gross profit of photovoltaic enterprises will be impacted again, and the industry inflection point that finally ushered in has recently triggered a round of questions. At this time, China's photovoltaic industry should put a safety helmet on the head mold to isolate. Has the industry really recovered? Although the photovoltaic industry belongs to the field of high-tech new energy, due to the low technical threshold, various enterprises have launched polysilicon projects since 2007. Even Vosges, which sells towels, and Tongwei, which makes fodder, launched photovoltaic product lines at that time. The photovoltaic industry has become a replica of the low-end foreign trade model of "three supplies and one compensation", and the industry itself has a serious oversupply. However, China's photovoltaic sales are mainly driven by external demand and highly dependent on foreign exports. Even today, the degree of foreign dependence is still 55%

recently, the European Commission agreed to impose punitive tariffs on solar modules imported from China. The voting results will be announced from June 6, with an average tax rate of 47%. Pessimists believe that the EU's new round of double taxation will raise tariffs by nearly 50% at one time, which will inevitably give a heavy blow to Chinese photovoltaic enterprises whose gross profit margin is only a single digit, and the economic recovery is endless, not to mention the inflection point. However, optimists believe that the Chinese government still has enough time and space to negotiate because the final ruling of the double reverse was issued at the end of 2013, so the results announced in early June have the effect of landing boots. According to the sample statistics of pvinsights, on the eve of the announcement of the double reverse, the price fluctuation of products in the photovoltaic market was not large. Although the prices of PV grade and secondary polysilicon fell slightly year-on-year, the prices of middle and downstream cells and modules rose slightly, indicating a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market

according to the conventional logic, whether China's photovoltaic industry can get out of the crisis is closely related to policies, especially the foreign double anti policy, which directly affects the global market demand for photovoltaic products. But everything should be dynamically observed. The siege of foreign countries on China's photovoltaic industry was launched by the United States in 2011. Europe may be coveted by the export of photovoltaic technology and equipment to China, so it did not follow the pace of the United States to carry out anti-dumping on China's photovoltaic industry until 2012. 2012 was not only the most serious year of oversupply in the industry, but also the most violent year for foreign governments to encircle and suppress Chinese photovoltaic enterprises

in order to deal with the crisis of the photovoltaic industry, the national development and Reform Commission changed its previous attitude towards the photovoltaic industry and instead supported it. With the rapid development of photovoltaic industry in China and other emerging countries, the industry estimates that the new PV installed capacity in the world in the next few years will mainly come from emerging market countries. Moreover, since last year, China's photovoltaic enterprises have closed down in a large area, and the projects that were expected to be launched have also been shelved. The passive contraction of production capacity makes it difficult for the supply side to grow significantly in a short time, and the remaining photovoltaic enterprises have ushered in a performance inflection point. On the one hand, the new demand port is opened, on the other hand, the supply is suppressed. Therefore, from the data analysis, it is considered that the impact of Europe's double reaction is weakening. Even the sales gap of 5-8gw, which is the most pessimistic forecast for the export of the European market, will also be made up by the new demand of emerging countries such as China and Japan. For example, the golden sun project was approved in China last year, with the first phase of 1.7gw, and the remaining 1.2gw will be merged on June 30, 2013; The second phase, 2.8gw, will be completed by the end of 2013. At the same time, the component capacity of the European market is only 2~4gw, which cannot meet all the needs of Europe. Therefore, even if the double reverse result is very unfavorable, Chinese component manufacturers still have the opportunity to get some share in other foreign markets, including the European Union. For example, in the financial presentation of Jing'ao solar, company executives clearly pointed out that the performance of Jing'ao solar improved in the first quarter, thanks to the sales of more components in Japan and the expansion in emerging markets

huge domestic demand lights up the photovoltaic industry

with the rapid growth of China's inland market, the voice of China's photovoltaic industry will also be enhanced. According to the data, China's newly increased PV installed capacity will account for nearly 1/3 of the world in 2013. Coupled with the rise of emerging markets such as Japan and India, it will account for 50% of the new PV installed capacity in the world. The European anti-dumping and anti-dumping measures may trigger a series of anti sanctions measures by the Chinese government. It is expected in the industry that China may introduce a series of specific policies such as subsidies to the domestic photovoltaic industry before the end of June

the current so-called oversupply in the photovoltaic industry does not mean that photovoltaic is a sunset industry. On the contrary, the plight of China's photovoltaic industry today is a cyclical phenomenon that the pace of emerging industry development is too fast at the initial stage rather than at the end. Taking the global average utilization hours of photovoltaic power generation as 1000 hours, as long as the global penetration rate of photovoltaic power generation reaches 8% by 2020, the annual new installed capacity demand in the future will have 10 times the growth space compared with 2011. At present, institutions generally predict that the global PV installed capacity this year is 37gw, with a year-on-year increase of 26%, of which domestic will exceed the expectation to reach 11gw, and Japan will also reach 5GW, which is enough to make up for the decline in European market demand

judging from the sales of most photovoltaic enterprises in the first quarter, the shipment volume increased and the loss decreased during the period of poly GCL, which is mutually confirmed with the current price improvement of upstream polysilicon enterprises. While other polysilicon and component enterprises did not significantly increase their inventories in the first quarter, the industry is expected to continue the de stocking stage in the first half of the year, and the performance will significantly improve with the implementation of the policy in the second half of the year

without the crisis of photovoltaic industry in previous years, there would be no significant decline in photovoltaic power generation costs. Only the substantial decline in power generation costs makes it possible for photovoltaic power generation to replace traditional energy, which may be the reason why Buffett laid out photovoltaic power stations when the photovoltaic industry was in the most serious crisis in recent years

the Castle Peak cannot be covered, after all, it flows eastward. The EU's dual anti-dumping and anti-dumping measures are just a small episode in the early recovery of the photovoltaic industry, which will not hinder the general trend of the inflection point of the industry, and may have a certain impact on the performance of some enterprises in the second quarter. However, with the continuous decline of photovoltaic power generation costs and the large-scale start of the domestic market triggered by it, after a round of industry reshuffle, the domestic photovoltaic industry is expected to usher in a more quality period of prosperity and development in the next few years

the recovery of the industry was transmitted from downstream to upstream.

the first quarter report showed that the gross profit of Jingao solar, which most excited investors, turned positive and reached 6% in the first quarter of 2013, compared with -4.6% in the previous quarter. Among the 32 A-share photovoltaic companies, 15 made profits, and the component company Dongfang Risheng and other companies turned losses into profits in the first quarter. The inflection point of this performance is also reflected in the stock price. Since the beginning of the year, the market has corrected, but some photovoltaic stocks have remained relatively strong, and the stock prices of central shares, sunshine power, sunflower and other stocks have continued to rise

from the logic of industrial recovery, the crystalline silicon manufacturing enterprises with the least technical content are still under the dual pressure of raw material import and price. The performance recovery may be later, but the cyclical characteristics of profit and stock price fluctuations will be relatively significant. However, the most direct beneficiaries of the explosion of domestic photovoltaic demand in 2013 are downstream companies, because downstream enterprises benefit more from the recovery of domestic market demand and are less affected by the double anti sanctions, such as TBEA, the EPC general contractor of domestic photovoltaic projects, sunshine power, which accounts for 30% of the domestic inverter share, and power station developers Hairun photovoltaic, aerospace Electromechanical, Zhongli technology, etc. Followed by modules, battery chips, silicon chips, polysilicon and other middle and upper reaches companies, while photovoltaic equipment stocks represented by Jinggong technology, once a big bull stock, benefited less, because basically all fractures in the industry expansion can be successfully healed, and the production peak has passed. Photovoltaic enterprises that have just breathed will not immediately launch new production lines, which can also be seen from the weak trend of photovoltaic equipment stocks

in short, for photovoltaic stocks, we can also pay attention to leading enterprises with relatively high operating rates and good transformation strategies. For example, the reason why Jingao Solar has a good performance in the first quarter is that orders have shifted to emerging markets, accounting for more than 40% in China, 10% in the United States and Japan, and 13% in South Africa. At present, the operating rate of Jingke PV has reached 100%, and orders continue to be strong in the second quarter. In addition, the operating rates of Yuhui, Yingli and Trinasolar also reached 90%. On the whole, the upward inflection point of the photovoltaic industry has loomed

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